The Rubik's Cube constituency review — solving Leitrim's problem has made a dog's dinner of Galway East

THE findings of any Constituency Review Commission always throw up winners and losers, but the just published 2012 review has sent seismic shocks through the political system. It will take a general election, however, to highlight the true scale of its impact and sort the winners from the losers. Galway people are now to be represented by 11 TDs elected from three constituencies: Galway West (5), Galway East (3) and Roscommon-Galway (3). Galway East has suffered more than most, with the loss of a seat and the hiving off of a large swathe of territory encompassing Ballinasloe, north to Mountbellew and right up to the outskirts of Dunmore.   This savage carve-up is expected to transform the political landscape in the constituency[private] With the future of the Kitt and Connaughton dynasties in doubt, and a large question mark over whether first-time TD Colm Keaveney can survive such in the shrinking Tuam hinterland. But the changes also spell opportunities for those hopefuls whose ambitions were stymied by the hold perpetuated by the Kitt and Connaughton families â€â€ and the jockeying for position has already begun. Keaveney has stated that he will stand and fight in Galway East, Connaughton has to decide whether he will stay put or follow a large tranche of support into the new constituency, and with Castleblakeney now in that constituency too, it seem likely Michael Kitt will give consideration to bowing out of politics. Ciarán Cannon's constituency basically remains intact. The only winner in Galway East would seem to be Junior Minister Ciarán Cannon (FG) whose southern end of the constituency basically remains intact. Whether a candidate can wear the Galway jersey in the lost territory and harvest the 12,000 to 13,000 voters marooned between the new Galway East boundary and the old Roscommon border, will be exercising the minds of party strategists for the next few years. And, if there are three Roscommon TDs in the new Roscommon East constituency, how will issues such as the retention of services at Ballinasloe Hospital fare when up against a similar dilemma in Roscommon? This is the most radical redrawing of constituencies in the history of the State. Even when such reviews were in the hands of the Minister for the Environment, or his counterpart at the time, with the opportunity and the temptation to gerrymander to gain electoral advantage, no one ever dared to go this far. Three constituencies have been abolished. Three-quarters of all constituencies have been altered. Ten county boundaries have been breached and over 270,000 people will find themselves in new constituencies at the next election. Since the review process was taken out of political hands in the early 1980s and given over to an independent review group, every recommendation made has been accepted â€â€ however unwillingly â€â€ and been acted on. There is the miniscule possibility of appeals against this review, but judging by the grim resignation of those most affected, this seems very unlikely. By general consensus, the changes in Galway are both baffling and radical and appear to be based more on expediency elsewhere, the political reunification of Leitrim, in particular, than on any practical application on the ground. The carve-up is broadly the same as that predicted in The Tuam Herald in the story entitled: Political butchery looms in constituency review in our May 31 edition. But the butchery to which we referred involved a worst-case scenario and there is now dismay at the way Galway East has been treated while Galway West has remained relatively unscathed.   In short, a huge slice of Galway East has been transferred into the new constituency of Roscommon-Galway, simply to make up the numbers to keep three seats in this constituency. In the process, Galway East loses a seat, dropping from four to three. Galway West remains a five-seater, gaining a large tract of Mayo, with the Ballinrobe-southern Lough Mask area. Mayo also loses a seat. The county has been reduced from six seats (two three-seaters) to the current five, and will drop to four at the next election. Galway West will retain the rump of the county stretching into Galway East, taking in Oranmore, Turloughmore, Claregalway and Corrandulla, which had been expected to transfer into Galway East. Galway East could have maintained four seats if this had occurred, even with the hive-off to Roscommon, but the city's influence prevailed and dropping to four seats apparently could not be countenanced. Basically, Galway East and Mayo have been cannibalised to meet the needs of Roscommon and Galway West, and to facilitate the doctoring of the boundary in Leitrim. 10,000 Mayo people move to Galway West, 20,000 Galway East people now find themselves politically in Roscommon.   Nothing is certain in life and politics but change THE logic of the review group is baffling. While Ballinasloe, a quintessential Galway town is transferred into Roscommon, the â€Ëœrump' territory comprising Oranmore, Turloughmore and Corrandulla, up almost to the walls of Athenry, still remains in the five-seater Galway West. The business community in Ballinasloe has not reacted well to the change and while the towns of Mountbellew and Dunmore remain in Galway East, they do so only just â€â€ in both cases. This leaves Galway East squeezed in the middle, on one side by the new Roscommon-Galway constituency, and on the other by the Galway West rump. 'A rasher of a constituency,' one observer dubbed it. The divide is the worst possible scenario for two of the four sitting Galway East TDs, Michael Kitt (FF) and Paul Connaughton Jnr (FG), it's bad news for Colm Keaveney (Lab), and it's a gift to new TD Ciarán Cannon (FG) whose stomping ground is relatively untouched, putting him at the top of the Lazarus league of Galway politicians. Now, apart from having to deal with the difficulties presented by the loss of a seat in the constituency, TDs and political hopefuls will have to go back to the drawing board and figure out where best to try and stake out new territories. Mountbellew-based Deputy Paul Connaughton Jnr, who replaced his father in the Dáil at the last election, has had his base carved in two, with most of his Mountbellew home territory now in Roscommon. A glance at our main map shows the scale of the loss for him. He now faces the dilemma of which way to jump â€â€ into Roscommon-Galway or back into Galway East. Party hopefuls encouraging him to go, and sitting Roscommon TDs refusing to put out the welcome mat, will aggravate his predicament.[/private]