Political butchery looms in constituency review

By TONY GALVIN POLITICAL careers and dynasties could be affected dramatically in Co Galway in the coming weeks as elected, and aspiring TDs, anxiously await the findings of the Constituency Commission re­view due in mid-June. Tension is particularly acute in Galway East, with speculation rife that the four-seater is to lose a seat and see large swathes of territory, incorporating Ballinasloe and possibly as far north as Dunmore, hived off into a new and enlarged Roscommon constituency. The Commission is expected to recommend a reduction in the number of TDs from 166 to 158. Sources indicate that three of these seats will go from Connacht Ulster. The merging of two Donegal three-seaters into one five-seater may account for one seat. The five-seater Cavan-Monaghan consti­tuency being reduced to four is expected to account for another. This leaves the remaining seat to come from Mayo and Galway's combined 14 seats. Which slice?[private] Speculation is now focused on either a large slice of East Mayo or East Galway going into a new Roscommon constituency. The Constituency Commission generally favours merging constituency and county boundaries in as far as practicable, but many established politicians now fear Galway East will be cannibalised and downgraded to make the figures fit. This week's speculation resembles a game of political musical chairs, with all players acknowledging that there have to be losers, but all hoping there'll be a seat for them when the music stops. While the cannibalisation of the East Galway constituency could spell disaster for some, others are already planning new bailiwicks, and hoping to take advantage of the changes. In this regard, several parties are eyeing the possibility of Galway West territory east of the city being transferred to Galway East. Such a move would be welcomed by both Senator Lorraine Higgins and Senator Fidelma Healy Eames. Crowded field Healy Eames has to contend with a crowded Fine Gael field in Galway West, whereas a transformed Galway East could suit her. Higgins would welcome an extension of her Athenry base. What would suit them even better would be a reduction of Galway West to a four-seater and the status quo maintained in Galway East. Both women will also be assisted in their nomination prospects by the new rule requiring parties to ensure 30 per cent of candidates standing are female. The nightmare scenario for both Paul Connaughton Jnr and the Fianna Fáil Kitt dynasty would be the hiving away of a significant portion of their traditional heartland into Roscommon. It would also impact considerably on Labour's Colm Keaveney's re-election chances. Deputy Connaughton would find it very difficult to carve out new territory south of the railway line divide, which his father Paul Snr so successfully engineered, to ensure Fine Gael held two seats. Nightmare prospect If even Ballinasloe alone is hived off, this would make matters very difficult for Connaughton Jnr, but if the carve-up extends up around Dunmore and takes out Glenamaddy, coming uncomfortably close to his Mountbellew base, it could spell disaster for him. Equally, this scenario is bleak news for Fianna Fáil if their hopes of retaining their one seat in Galway East rest on a Kitt gene pool candidate running in the next election. All involved remember the impact constituency changes had on the political careers of Mark Killilea and Tom Hussey. It now appears very likely that either Mayo or Galway will lose a seat. Galway West has five seats but with a population base of 140,000, it can justify all five. The Constitution stipulates that there should be a TD to represent between 20,000 and 30,000 people in each constituency. Galway West has a TD per 28,144 ­people. Population rise The Galway East constituency has a population of 110,085, an increase of almost ten per cent since 2006. This four-seat constituency has a TD per 27,521 people. The surprise jump of ten per cent in population figures had, it was thought, made it more likely that the status quo would be maintained. Hiving off large chunks of East Galway into Roscommon could facilitate Galway East being reduced to a three-seater, thereby changing the political landscape of the region considerably. With Fine Gael's Ciarán Cannon sitting comfortably in the practically unchanged south of the constituency, and an emergent Sinn Féin preparing Cllr Dermot Connolly for another stab at a seat at the next election, it makes for a very uncomfortable scenario in the northern end, with three sitting TDs, Connaughton, Kitt and Keaveney, struggling to maintain their footholds. Added to the mix are aspiring TDs, Senators Lorraine Higgins (Lab) and Fidelma Healy Eames, who hope to have the luxury of declaring for either Galway West or East, depending on the lie of the land, following the Commission's findings. All of the county's nine TDs will be hoping for a maintenance of the status quo after June. Their best hope is that the Commission decides to reduce Mayo from a five-seater to a four-seater, and a large rural slice of East Mayo is ceded to Roscommon. This scenario could suit the Government as it would leave John O'Mahony campaigning in the newly enlarged Roscommon constituency. Ironically, O'Mahony is already a resident of the current Roscommon-South Leitrim constituency, and was unable to vote for himself in the last election. Source indicate that O'Mahony is 'well got' in Roscommon and would be likely to keep his seat.[/private]